Politics

(Last updated: 10.02.2020)

Aside from the following special betting rules, the common betting rules apply. The special rules will take precedence over the common rules nevertheless.

1. Leadership Elections.

a) When betting is offered on Next Party Leaders/Next Prime Minister/ Next President or similar, odds are offered on the basis of "all in, run or not" unless otherwise stated. No stakes will be refunded for reasons of ineligibility, failure to stand, withdrawal, or any other eventuality. “Temporary" or "caretaker" leaders installed in advance of any scheduled leadership contest or official selection process will not count. The winner of any such election or process will count as the "Next Leader", irrespective.  

b) UK: "Next Prime Minister" will always be settled as whomever takes up the office, even in advance of a party leadership contest. Anyone invited to form a UK government by the Monarch will count as Prime Minister for these purposes.

2. US Elections.

a) US Congressional Elections. If a run-off is required in any seat, settlement of all related markets may be delayed to take account of the final result. Where markets are offered on the eventual control of either House, or overall seat totals following a series of elections, that will include all scheduled races as well as any special elections held on the same day.

If any non-party candidate has publicly stated an intention to caucus with an identified party, that individual will count towards the overall party totals. Markets offered on Control of the Senate will take into account Vice Presidential affiliation to break any tie.

b) US Presidential Elections. These will be settled on the winner as declared after the General Election for President, allowing for any relevant legal or constitutional challenges. In cases where there is any ambiguity relating to the result, we reserve the right to wait for the outcome of the subsequent electoral college and, if necessary, congressional votes. If a different individual is later inaugurated as President, that will not count for settlement purposes. Electoral College vote shares will be settled on the results declared by individual states rather than the votes cast by electors at the subsequent college. If a Presidential election is delayed for any reason, all bets will stand if an election is held within six months of the original scheduled polling day.

c) Party nominees & vice-presidential nominees These will be settled on the nominees as declared at the Party Conventions in election year.

d) Primaries & caucuses All markets will be settled on final vote share, unless otherwise specified. Results as declared by the individual state parties.

e) US Presidential State Betting Will be settled on statewide vote share, allowing for any relevant recounts or legal challenges. Singles only.

3. UK Politics

a) Voter Turnout. Will be settled on UK wide turnout on polling day. Any subsequent delayed votes or re-runs will not count.

b) Most Seats Betting. In the event of a tie, dead heat rules will apply to any affected markets. Unless specified, The Speaker does not count and N.Ireland seats do not count.

c) Vote Share Betting. Will apply to GB seats only (i.e. excluding N.Ireland) unless otherwise specified.

d) Postponed/Re-run Seats Any seat which requires a re-run for legal or other reasons: The original declared result will stand for betting purposes. This also applies to by-elections.

Any seat which requires a postponement of the vote to a later date and is not held on general election day, will still count for purposes of seat totals or majority betting. We may delay settlement of any relevant markets until the result of any affected seats are known.

e) Majority Betting For a party to win an overall majority, they are required to win over half of the UK constituencies contested i.e. if 650 seats are contested, 326 are required for a majority. The Speaker will not count for any party totals. Any seats won in Northern Ireland will not count for either Labour, Conservatives or Lib Dem party totals. Candidates running under Labour Co-Op or similar affiliations will count for the respective parties.If the next general election is run under a significantly different electoral system (e.g. not single member FPTP constituencies) seat total bets, majority bets and individual constituency markets will be void. Most Seats markets will stand.

f) Constituency Markets All markets are for the next General Election, unless otherwise stated. Other runners may be added at any time as they declare, or on request. Bets on parties or candidates who do not stand will be losers. Constituency betting is available as singles only. Bets placed in advance of any boundary changes implemented will be void. Bets placed in advance of any boundary changes implemented will be void.

g) Next Cabinet Member to Leave markets Requires cabinet member to leave the cabinet - moving to another cabinet position does not count as leaving. Dead Heat rules will apply if more than one person leaves the cabinet on the same day, irrespective of the time of announcement.

h) Post election government betting. A coalition is defined as any arrangement which results in representatives of the all of the parties named having cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election (and no other parties having cabinet representation). A minority government is defined as the party named having less than 326 seats, but having all cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election. A majority government is defined as the party named having over 325 seats and all of the cabinet seats in the first reformed cabinet after the election.

i) Debate Betting. Unless otherwise stated, the "winner" of any UK debate will be determined by the first YouGov poll on the debate winner (or similar). If YouGov do not release a poll within 24 hours, we will settle the winner as declared by a majority of any polls released by companies who are members of the British Polling Council within 24 hours of the debate. We will settle on the headline, rounded percentages and dead heat rules may apply.